Israel and the Origins of the Islamic State

In 2014 the BBC carried an article about claims that were doing the rounds in Lebanon to the effect that the United States more or less created ISIS/ISIL/the Islamic State (here-on referred to as ISIS) to help fulfil its foreign policy objectives. (1) The idea to my mind is fairly ludicrous given that the United States spent over two trillion dollars in building the Iraqi state that was then falling to pieces. (2)

I rather think that the US didn’t benefit especially as it had spend more lives and money to intervene militarily again for the simple and strategically sensible reason that it cannot afford its oil supply to be disrupted (3) especially as it was - then as now - the middle of picking a fight with one of the world's largest suppliers of oil: Russia.

Of course the CIA could have been running some kind of 'regime change' program, but I rather doubt it considering how they had their fingers burnt in Iraq and had their hands full in the Ukraine at the time as well. It seems rather more likely that the origins of ISIS' success came from a regional player.

It comes down to that simple logical test when you have little hard evidence to rely on: cui bono?

Or in English: who benefits?

We've already seen that the United States was a major loser in the rise of ISIS as it could no longer see a easy way to install a pro-Western government in Syria at the time due to ISIS' advances and increasing domination of the anti-Assad forces there, it lost a huge amount of military hardware due to the rout of the Iraqi army in June 2014, its oil supplies were being disrupted with the US economy still very fragile and vulnerable to oil price hikes (4) and it was now having to militarily intervene once again (which was both a public relations disaster and a nod to the decline of the US as a global power).

Therefore it was rather unlikely to be the United States: isn't it?

We can rule out the (then) Syrian government because it was at war with ISIS and had been since before ISIS emerged as a force to be reckoned with.

Iran we can rule out for the same reason since it is the major proponent of Shi'a Islam and was supporting the (then) Syrian government with military advisers, weapons and funding. (5) Besides Iraq was - and is - Iran's key remaining ally in the region and with Syria in middle of a civil war and unable to support Iran's foreign policy objectives: then should Iraq come out of its alliance with Iran then the latter would be politically isolated and its ability to project its power (for example by the use of Hezbollah as its anti-Israeli and Lebanese political proxy) significantly curtailed.

Now isn't that interesting?

Iran is the key to the riddle of ISIS origins and success I think: for the simple reason that ISIS was operating primarily against the regional bloc centred around Iran. It wasn't operating against the other two political blocs: the Sunni majority gulf states and Israel.

It isn't likely that this is a coincidence, but at the same time we should be aware that - in spite of the propaganda line taken by the (then) Syrian government - the Syrian civil war did start as a genuine attempt to revolt for largely economic reasons (Syria like many Middle Eastern states was hit hard by the 2008 global economic near-collapse). (6) That doesn't mean this revolt wasn't hijacked by other players, but rather that it started out one way and then turned into a quagmire where other powers in the region were - and still are - throwing their hat into the ring.

The 'other powers' I just mentioned are both the Sunni bloc (i.e., Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and so on) and the Shi'a bloc (i.e., Iraq until the ISIS insurgency and Iran). What is often forgotten is that Israel too had a significant interest in the Syrian conflict given that the Assad government was a long-time foe of theirs and a weakened Syria would consolidate Israeli control of the Golan Heights and the war acts as a potential pretext for occupying more land on which to build Eretz Yisroel (which they have since done in the days after the fall of the Assad government in late 2024).

More importantly Israel has a vested interest in political instability in Syria as well as Iraq for the simple reason that this necessarily cuts off direct Iranian aid to Hezbollah in Lebanon (and don't forget Israel invaded Lebanon in 2006 - as well as in 2024 - in order to 'destroy' Hezbollah) and even if it doesn't totally cut such aid off: it makes it very difficult, risky and expensive to send it.

In looking to deal with Hezbollah - who along with Hamas - are Israel's most committed long-term opponents in active military terms: Israel may well have calculated that both Hezbollah and their Iranian sponsors would get drawn into the Syrian conflict as well as potentially any Iraqi conflict where a significant militant and sectarian Sunni presence was mass murdering the Shi'a faithful and the destroying historic and highly revered Shi'a shrines.

It seems outlandish when you first think of it, but consider that Israel's primary focus in terms of foreign policy since the fall of Saddam in 2003 has been to 'deal with' what they refer to as the 'Iranian threat'. This is particularly true since Israel was alarmed by ever closer cooperation between Iran, Syria and Hezbollah from 2010 onwards when - after a summit in Damascus - the Israelis began upping their rhetoric about unilaterally 'bombing Iran'. (7)

All this is part of what is called the 'Begin Doctrine' in Israeli military and intelligence circles: in other words Israel will do absolutely anything (including assassination, launching illegal military attacks and/or fund/equip opposing radical groups regardless of the ethical or long-term political consequences) to get rid of a dangerous enemy, especially one with potential access to NBC capabilities. (8) It wouldn't be the first time that Israel has helped to fund and create a radical Islamic group in order to severely hinder its enemies.

The best example of this is of course Hamas, which Israeli intelligence played a major role in creating in 1988 (which is worth pointing out when 'conservatives' point to the 'anti-Semitism' of Hamas' founding charter). (9) This was done for the simple reason that Israel's main enemy at the time was Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) so in fostering the birth of a Palestinian radical Islamic group: it would potentially split the PLO's support base and therefore serve to weaken Palestinian resistance by the rise of political factions and the resultant infighting. (10)

That this backfired quite spectacularly shouldn't blind us to the fact that Israel is adhering to the same doctrine in trying to eliminate Iran now than it was in creating Hamas to eliminate the PLO in the 1980s.

We know - for example - that Israel treated wounded Syrian rebels and intentionally got them ready to go back into combat against Assad’s forces. (11) We also know that the Syrian government had long been asserting that Israel has been behind support of the rebels (12) - which was later confirmed - (13) and furthermore that at least some Syrian rebel leaders actually wanted Israel to be their ally. (14)

When we factor into the equation that both military and civilian aid for even 'secular' Syrian rebels often ended up in the hands of Islamists (15) and that Israel not being involved in this conflict by supporting those who meet its strategic goals of eliminating the Shi'a bloc lead by Iran is almost an impossibility. In addition to realizing that the countries targeted by ISIS have so far only being part of the Shi'a bloc and that ISIS' primary hatred is against the Shi'a not religious minorities (although that is not to say they aren't brutal towards the latter, but that their violence is worse and more widespread against Shi'a Muslims): it becomes very clear that Israel's short-term political goals in the region are extremely well-aligned with ISIS' short-term political goals as well as the pattern of ISIS military offensives.

Therefore it is extremely likely that Israel (and more probably the Mossad) decided to support and nurture the radical ISIS group in order that they would grow to be strong enough to spread the Syrian civil war into Iraq and thus totally (or for a few years at least) eliminate another key supporter of Iran in the region, which would then create a situation where both Iran and Hezbollah were isolated and having to focus their attention and resources on fighting ISIS rather than Israel (allowing Israel more freedom to operate militarily against Hamas and devote its intelligence resources to infiltrating and combating Iran while it is distracted).

When you think about it: it makes perfect sense for Israel especially as - for all the IDF's general military ineffectiveness - ISIS is not a threat in the slightest to a fairly well-equipped, motivated and trained military where they have no 'fifth column' support. The only countries ISIS was really dangerous were those with dated militaries and with numerous potential fifth columnists in their ranks; such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

ISIS was not a military threat to countries like Turkey, Israel or Iran, but because of their military advances in Iraq and Syria: it will cause a great deal of foreign policy and economic issues for Iran.

Therefore it seems more than likely that the origins of ISIS' success are Israeli not American or Saudi.

References

(1) http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28745990

(2) http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/14/us-iraq-war-anniversary-idUSBRE92D0PG20130314

(3) http://www.channel4.com/news/is-attacking-the-islamic-state-is-all-about-oil-video

(4) http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2014/08/08/will-geopolitical-progress-mean-lower-oil-prices/

(5) http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/21/us-syria-crisis-iran-idUSBREA1K09U20140221

(6) http://origins.osu.edu/article/syrias-islamic-movement-and-2011-12-uprising

(7) Yaakov Katz, Yoaz Hendel, 2012, 'Israel vs. Iran: The Shadow War', 1st Edition, Potomac: Washington D.C., p. 9

(8) Cf. Ronen Bergman, 2008, 'The Secret War with Iran: The 30-Year Covert Struggle for control of a 'Rogue' State', 2nd Edition, Oneworld: Oxford, pp. 382-383

(9) http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/07/30/how-israel-helped-create-hamas/

(10) Ibid.; http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB123275572295011847

(11) http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2014/06/12/comment-israel-tending-wounded-syrian-rebels; http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/syrian-wounded-flee-to-hospitals-in-israel-derek-stoffel-1.2541562; http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebel-leader-thanks-pm-for-standing-by-wounded/

(12) http://friendsofsyria.co/enemies-of-syria/israel%E2%80%99s-plot-to-take-down-syria-i/

(13) http://www.timesofisrael.com/syrian-rebel-commander-says-he-collaborated-with-israel/

(14) http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/05/09/syrian-rebel-wants-a-new-ally-israel.html

(15) http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/west-suspends-aid-for-islamist-rebels-in-syria-underlining-their-disillusionment-with-those-forces-opposed-to-president-bashar-alassad-8998891.html; http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-conflict-how-millions-of-pounds-of-western-aid-destined-for-the-needy-is-falling-into-hands-of-isis-9610491.html